New Concordia AI Forecast Warns Policy Reform Crucial to Help Moderate Canadian Home Prices

BURLINGTON, ON, July 29, 2025 – As federal, provincial, and municipal governments race to develop innovative approaches to expand Canada’s housing supply, a new study from the John Molson School of Business at Concordia University identifies that high-impact tools to boost housing completions are within reach of policymakers.

Supported by the Equiton Research Fund in Real Estate, Breaking Ground: AI-Driven Analysis of How Policy Reform Can Unleash Canadian Housing Supply explores how rising home prices are shaped by policy decisions and market forces and identifies data-backed strategies to begin to realign housing supply with underlying demand.

“This research validates what housing advocates have long known — that minimizing policy barriers and lowering construction costs is crucial to addressing the housing crisis,” says Christopher Wein, Chief Operating Officer of Equiton Developments, Equiton’s in-house development division. “For the first time, we can actually see the impact of these obstacles quantified in real terms. That’s the kind of data stakeholders need to confidently start shifting policy in the right direction.”

Head researcher Dr. Erkan Yönder, Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance, adds: “There is nothing easy about addressing one of Canada’s biggest generational issues. However, we show that streamlining approval frameworks and reducing red tape can be a low-cost first step that could be quickly implemented for meaningful results. The cost of inaction is too great to ignore the tools we already have.”

Key Takeaways

• Across Canada, a 10% reduction in building restrictions can raise annual home completions by almost the same percentage. A 10% reduction in approval delays adds another 3%.
• A 10% increase in input costs — primarily materials, but also attributable to taxes, fees, and labour — can reduce housing completions by 25% to 35%, especially for apartment-style housing.
• Under current trends, Toronto median home prices can reach $1.8M by 2032. Doubling completions could moderate prices to $1.6M.
• In Vancouver, home prices may exceed $2.8M by 2032 at the current trajectory. Aggressive supply increases could moderate prices closer to $2.5M.
• Montréal prices rise across all scenarios, while Calgary’s price growth is more responsive to completions and population shifts.

The new findings complement earlier research by Yönder and his team, which used artificial intelligence (AI) to project long-term rent pricing trends in Canada’s major urban centres including Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, and Calgary.

Find the full report at Equiton.com.

Dr. Erkan Yönder is an Associate Professor of Real Estate Finance and serves as the Director of the Jonathan Wener Centre for Real Estate at the John Molson School of Business, Concordia University. With a primary focus on real estate finance, Erkan’s expertise lies in commercial real estate and sustainable real estate. Erkan’s research has found its way into esteemed academic journals and has secured multiple grants from renowned institutions such as the National Pension Hub (NPH) and the European Public Real Estate Association (EPRA). Notably, his research earned him the Nick Tyrrell Real Estate Research Prize in the UK and the distinguished Best Published Article Award from Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI), a United Nations-supported initiative. Erkan has had the privilege of presenting his scholarly work at some of the world’s leading universities, including MIT, Yale University, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), and Cornell University. Erkan received his PhD degree in Finance and Real Estate at Maastricht University.

Christopher Wein is Chief Operating Officer of Equiton Developments. Christopher has over 25 years of experience in real estate development, including C-suite and senior executive positions in large-scale development companies operating throughout Canada and the United States. He has led development initiatives for all asset classes and is adept in all types of construction including low-rise, master-planned communities, resorts, and skyscrapers.

ABOUT EQUITON

Equiton is a leading private real estate investment firm committed to expanding access to institutional-quality real estate through a range of investment solutions. Equiton is proud to champion informed participation in the real estate market through independent research, expert insights, and advocacy through the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s Housing and Development Strategy Council. The firm is backed by Equiton Living and Equiton Developments — its dedicated property management and development divisions — enabling an expert-led, active management approach that enhances insight and control. This drives strong outcomes for investors while delivering lasting value to residents and homeowners.

For more information, visit www.equiton.com.

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